Our US Risk Demand Indicator turned positive this week after turning negative and signaling risk off in March. The official reading is +0.01, slightly positive but enough to signal risk-on. As discussed below, the market has rebounded sharply off the April 8th lows as tensions eased. Given the fluid backdrop, the market could fluctuate between risk-on and risk-off in the coming months

This week, stocks sold off early in the week but rebounded to finish higher after the administration announced a UK trade deal. The Russell 2000 led the gains and outperformed the S&P 500, with outperformance from the Equal Weight, Value, and High Beta factors as well. Volatility eased across markets, with both the VIX and MOVE indices falling as tensions continue to de-escalate. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened, and oil prices rose despite OPEC signaling plans to increase output.

This week, stocks ended the week higher after an early-week selloff. The S&P 500 gained +3.9% as it climbed back toward “Liberation Day” levels. The tone was broadly risk-on: the Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 with a +4.2% gain, High Beta outperformed Low Volatility, and cyclical sectors led defensives. In the fixed-income market, bonds were flat as Treasury yields stabilized. Notably, corporate high-yield outperformed as credit spreads re-tightened, another sign of improving risk sentiment.

This week, the S&P 500 ended flat after giving back most of its early-week gains tied to the administration's exempting tech products from China tariffs. The Nasdaq returned -0.5%, with the Magnificent 7 and Technology leading to the downside after last week’s relief rally. High beta and growth factors underperformed, while low volatility, value, and equal weight factors outperformed. International posted another strong week, and USD weakened, suggesting investors continue to rotate out of US assets.

Markets remain volatile, with the CBOE VIX and MOVE Index still elevated. The S&P 500 fell -2.4 %, but the decline masked sharp swings, with intraday moves of over 7% on three of four trading days. Despite the loss, the tone was broadly risk-on after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Markets have experienced several significant multi-standard deviation events in recent weeks. Until more clarity, we expect volatility to remain elevated and asset gains to be limited.

On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration implemented broad new tariff measures, including a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and higher reciprocal tariffs targeting approximately 60 countries with significant trade imbalances or barriers. This represents a substantial shift in U.S. trade policy with potential long-term implications. To help investors navigate these developments, we address six key questions outlining the potential impact.

Stocks rebounded this week, ending a 3-week losing streak. . Market volatility eased, with the CBOE VIX and bond volatility declining. The market correction felt like capitulation, helping to spark this week’s rebound, but the oversold conditions might be overstated due to the low volatility world we have come from. Ultimately, economic data will decide how long the current market drawdown lasts.

The stock market selloff extended into a third week, with the S&P 500 falling nearly -4% and entering correction territory (-10% below its February peak). Selling pressure remains on mega-cap stocks, with the Nasdaq 100, Growth factor, and Magnificent 7 leading the decline. The Low Volatility, Value, and Equal Weight factors outperformed the S&P 500, while defensive sectors outperformed cyclical ones.

This week, the S&P 500 fell 1.63% over the shortened week, capped by a Friday sell-off after consumer sentiment disappointed expectations, long-term inflation expectations have been at their highest since 1995, and the South China Morning Post reported a new coronavirus. Treasury yields dropped moderately over the week due to speculation about the timing and pace of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve Bank.

This week, the U.S. stock market remained range-bound, with major indexes trading sideways. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, while smaller companies underperformed, as the Russell 2000 declined by over 1%. After months of sideways movement, the S&P 500 continued to hover around its 50-day moving average. Economic data showed that unemployment fell to 4.0% in January, the lowest since May 2024. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% month-over-month, marking the fastest increase since August 2023, with broad-based price gains across categories.

This week, there was limited dispersion across markets for the second consecutive week despite the volatile response to economic data. The Russell 2000 slightly outperformed the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq and international stocks were flat. Underneath the surface, factor trends saw Momentum, Value, and Equal Weight outperform the S&P 500. Notably, the Magnificent 7 underperformed, dragging down the Growth factor and Tech sector. Sectors experienced significant dispersion. Energy gained +5.8% as oil prices rose, with the Material and Industrial sectors close behind. Bonds ended the week with modest gains despite the round trip in Treasury yields.

This week, the stock market traded higher in a shortened week. The Large size factor marginally outperformed, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gaining +1% and +0.8%, respectively, compared to the Russell 2000's +0.3%. The Fed's December meeting minutes contributed to the rise in the back end of the Treasury yield curve, with officials noting still-elevated inflation, strong consumer spending, and solid labor market dynamics.