The stock market was volatile in November as the Federal Reserve managed investor expectations for a December rate cut. The volatility started after the Fed’s late-October meeting, when Chair Powell said a December rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion.” Sentiment then shifted again late in the month as comments from influential Fed members, rising unemployment, and favorable inflation data pushed the odds of a December cut back above 80%.

This week, the equity market staged a broad rebound, recovering a portion of this month’s losses. The surge followed last Friday’s Fed commentary, which reopened the door to a December rate cut. Major equity indices rallied sharply, with gains spread across sectors and factors. Small-cap stocks were the standout performers, signaling a rotation into interest-rate-sensitive stocks that stand to benefit most from a December rate cut. The VIX market volatility index fell to a 1-month low after its recent spike, reflecting renewed confidence in the Fed’s pivot. The shift in the policy outlook drove Treasury yields lower across the yield curve, with the short end seeing the steepest decline. Gold traded higher, while oil continued to trade lower.

This week, markets were volatile amid AI valuation concerns and Fed policy uncertainty, which pressured equities. Stocks traded lower for four straight sessions, led by weakness in technology and AI-related companies. Bitcoin continued its slide from October's peak, and market volatility spiked. The market staged a late-week rebound sparked by stronger-than-expected labor market data and Nvidia's strong Q3 earnings, but the bounce was short-lived. This week’s volatility highlights the market’s increased sensitivity to Fed policy and AI headlines, driven by the outsized influence of AI stocks in major equity indices.

This month’s chart shows the S&P 500 has set 36 new highs since the start of the year. While it’s a decline from last year’s pace, the number of new highs in 2025 ranks 18^th compared to the past 98 years. The S&P 500’s strong performance this year is part of a broader equity market trend, with multiple other major equity indices also setting new highs. The Nasdaq has logged 36 new highs, the Dow Jones has posted 17, and the small-cap Russell 2000 has recorded six new highs after finally surpassing its 2021 peak.

October saw markets navigate a complex mix of political and economic developments as the Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% amid the second-longest government shutdown in US history. The data blackout caused by the shutdown forced policymakers to act without fresh economic indicators, with Chair Powell citing rising employment risks as the primary concern. Despite political gridlock and mixed economic signals, stocks closed the month near all-time highs after rebounding from early credit worries tied to regional banks and renewed US–China trade tensions. Encouraging progress at the late-October Trump–Xi summit and strong corporate earnings helped restore confidence. As investors look to year-end, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic—supported by the Fed’s easing stance, AI-driven growth enthusiasm, and resilient earnings—though elevated valuations, slowing job growth, and uncertainty over another rate cut keep expectations measured.

This week, markets were mixed as early strength gave way to caution following Fed commentary and tech earnings. Stocks initially rallied after last week’s better-than-expected inflation report, sending the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones to new highs. However, the strength faded after the Fed cut, with Chair Powell questioning a December cut. Mega-cap tech earnings also weighed on sentiment, as companies reported strong growth and forecasts for rising capital expenditures. Bonds traded lower, with longer-maturity bonds underperforming. Commodities were mixed: oil gave back recent gains, while gold stabilized after last week’s sell-off. 

This week, markets were volatile as credit concerns, trade tensions, and an unwind of speculative positions weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 rebounded early after last week’s regional bank sell-off but lost momentum after the administration floated new software export controls and US–China tensions flared. Bonds edged higher as Treasury yields fell amid economic uncertainty, the government shutdown, and expectations for a rate cut next week. Commodities were volatile: gold and silver spiked early before reversing lower, while oil rebounded late after hovering near a 4.5-year low. The VIX eased after last week’s spike but remained elevated, reflecting caution across markets.

This week, markets declined as renewed US–China trade tensions and the government shutdown weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished lower, giving back gains from earlier in the month, while small caps ended the week flat. Defensive sectors outperformed as market volatility increased, while financials led to the downside due to rising concern over commercial-loan exposures. Longer-maturity bonds outperformed, and high-yield corporate bonds underperformed investment grade. Gold surged to a new high, while crude oil fell over -6% to early 2021 levels.

Recent consumer survey data has revealed a widening gap between how consumers view the stock market and the economy. This month’s chart shows a dark blue line tracking the percentage of consumers who believe the stock market will rise over the next year, while the light blue line shows the University of Michigan’s Consumer Expectations Index, which measures outlooks for income, employment, and overall economic conditions. The takeaway: confidence in the stock market has rebounded, but overall sentiment remains weak.

This week, markets continued to grind higher, extending their early October rally as investor optimism held firm despite the ongoing government shutdown. The S&P 500 hit another record high but mostly traded sideways, led by the Utilities and Technology sectors, which continue to benefit from AI investment. In the credit market, bonds traded lower as Treasury yields increased with the government shutdown. Meanwhile, gold and bitcoin set record highs, and the VIX drifted up toward a 3-month high but remained range-bound, signaling expectations for market volatility to remain subdued.

This week, the markets ended higher, extending September’s momentum despite lingering macro uncertainties. The S&P 500 rose nearly +2% to another all-time high, led by health care, technology, and utilities gains, while energy and financials lagged. International equities outpaced U.S. markets as the dollar softened, with emerging markets ahead of developed. Treasuries rallied on weaker fixed-income labor data, with longer maturities outperforming as interest rates fell. Corporate bonds also trade higher, with investment-grade outperforming high yield. Commodities diverged as crude oil fell to its lowest since early May, while gold extended its record-setting rally.

This week, markets posted modest gains with a slight risk-on tone. The S&P 500 edged higher, led by Technology, Growth, and High Beta, while defensives such as Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Low Volatility lagged. International returns were mixed as the US dollar traded sideways. The Treasury curve steepened after the Fed cut rates in fixed income, pushing the back end higher. Longer-duration bonds underperformed short- and intermediate-duration bonds, and high-yield outperformed investment-grade. Oil gained +2%, while gold finished unchanged.