This week, the markets traded higher as oil and long-term Treasury yields pulled back after rising last week. The S&P 500 gained +1.2%, the Nasdaq rose +1.2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index returned +0.8%. Bonds rebounded as Treasury yields declined, with long-maturity Treasuries gaining +0.9% while shorter-maturity bonds were flat. Corporate bonds rose but trailed Treasuries, with investment-grade outperforming high-yield. Volatility eased in the equity and bond markets, the U.S. dollar strengthened modestly, and Bitcoin rose nearly +10%.

This week, the markets traded higher. The S&P 500 gained +1.2%, the Nasdaq 100 rose +2.4%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index returned +1.8%, with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both setting new all-time highs. The equal-weight S&P 500 also gained +1.9%, signaling broad market participation. Bonds traded higher as markets reduced expectations for another Fed rate hike, with shorter-maturity bonds outperforming longer-maturity bonds. Gold prices continued to drift higher, while the VIX fell below 15 and sits near a year-to-date low.

For this month’s chart of the month, we review the SP 500 earnings estimates for the calendar year. This year is different because actual earnings results have been strong. Analysts have consistently raised their estimates to keep pace with what companies are reporting, and profits have repeatedly come in ahead of expectations. The S&P 500 is on track for its seventh straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth.

This week, markets rebounded this week as geopolitical tensions eased and oil prices declined. The S&P 500 gained nearly +4% and set a new all-time high, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 Equal Weight, and Russell 2000 also setting records. Bonds gained as oil and Treasury yields fell. Shorter-maturity bonds outperformed as easing inflation fears trimmed the odds of a rate hike, while high-yield corporates outperformed as credit spreads re-tightened, a sign of risk appetite. The U.S. dollar strengthened slightly, the VIX declined, and gold rose to its highest since mid-June.

Last month, renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran resurfaced the same headlines and concerns from earlier in the year, as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz once again raised the risk of reduced oil supply. This is not the first time this year that markets have moved through this cycle. There have been multiple mini-cycles of escalating conflict, rising oil prices, and easing tensions, only for the pattern to repeat.

This week, markets traded lower as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East and oil prices surged +17%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each declined around -2%, with the Russell 2000 close behind at -1.5%. Bonds traded lower as interest rates rose across the yield curve, with longer-maturity bonds underperforming. The VIX climbed back toward 20 late in the week, and the U.S. dollar strengthened as interest rates rose and markets turned volatile.

This week, markets were mixed as leadership continued to rotate within the market. The S&P 500 returned -0.1% and the Nasdaq declined -2.5% as investors rotated out of Technology stocks. The value and equal-weight factors both outperformed, an indication that the average stock traded higher even as the cap-weighted indexes declined. The high beta and momentum factors led the market lower due to their overweighting of the Tech sector, which fell 4.3%. Bonds mostly finished the week flat, with longer-dated Treasury bonds modestly underperforming as oil prices surged nearly 10% amid renewed conflict in the Middle East.

This week, markets traded higher with leadership swinging back to the largest tech stocks. The S&P 500 gained +0.7%, and the Nasdaq returned +1.5%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index finished flat. Growth and momentum strategies outperformed, while value and equal-weight lagged, an indication that the average stock traded lower. Bonds traded lower as Treasury yields rose on the oil spike and the Fed's June minutes, with longer-dated bonds underperforming due to their sensitivity to interest rate movements. Oil prices rose more than +4%, the U.S. dollar held steady, and Bitcoin rose nearly +1%.

This week, markets traded lower, though there was relative strength beneath the major equity indexes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both ended the week lower as the largest tech stocks sold off. Bonds gained as Treasury yields fell despite a hot inflation report, with investors expecting inflation to ease after the recent decline in oil prices. Oil fell nearly -5% as traffic in the Strait increased, while the VIX, a measure of expected market volatility, drifted higher as the major indexes declined.

This week, markets traded higher with gains concentrated in the semiconductor industry and AI beneficiaries. Mega-cap tech's strength lifted the S&P 500 +1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite +3.1%. Bonds ended the week flat, with the long end the exception, which outperformed as falling oil prices eased inflation fears. Commodities fell sharply, with oil falling 13% as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a framework to end the conflict.

For this month’s chart of the month, we review the Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index. Most economic reports are released with a delay, which means investors often look at what happened weeks or even months ago, after economists have had time to gather the data. The Federal Reserve's Weekly Economic Index helps fill that gap by providing a more up-to-date snapshot of economic activity, while the ISM Manufacturing Index tracks factory purchase orders.

This week, markets fell for a second straight week, pausing a nearly two-month rally that began in late March. The market’s recent winners, particularly the tech sector and growth stocks, continued to lead the selloff. Treasury yields ended the week lower as oil prices fell on headlines of a diplomatic resolution, even though headline inflation came in higher than expected. Commodities moved lower as oil declined more than -6%, and bitcoin stabilized after falling to $60,000 last week.