This month’s chart shows how different withdrawal rates can impact a retirement portfolio’s lifespan. It assumes an individual retired in 2000 at age 65 with $500,000 and started taking monthly withdrawals. Each line reflects a different withdrawal rate between 4% and 8%, showing how the portfolio fared through age 85. While all scenarios start at the same point, the paths quickly diverge, especially during periods of market volatility. The chart illustrates how a retiree’s withdrawal strategy can determine whether the portfolio lasts or runs out.

Technology spending is growing at its fastest rate in decades, with a +14% year-over-year increase in Q1 2025—the highest since the late 1990s. This surge mirrors the dot-com era, when tech investment exceeded +15% YoY before sharply declining in the early 2000s. After a brief rebound in the mid-2000s, investment turned negative during the 2008 slowdown. Throughout the 2010s, growth averaged a modest +5.5% annually. Although the COVID pandemic temporarily stalled spending, tech investment has since reaccelerated to levels not seen since the 1990s.

The stock market’s performance is a function of two variables: earnings and valuations. A company generates profits, and investors assign a multiple to those profits, such as 15x or 20x earnings, to determine the company’s valuation. This year, earnings have been in the spotlight as policy uncertainty around tariffs and global trade clouds the outlook. With Q2 earnings season starting in mid-July, it is a good time to see how companies performed in Q1.

As trade policy changes, soft and hard economic data are back in the news. Soft data, such as surveys, measures sentiment, expectations, intentions, and how respondents feel about the economy. In contrast, hard data measures actual results and activity, such as production, spending, and job growth. While they typically move together, there are periods of heightened uncertainty where they can diverge, such as today. This month’s chart focuses on the difference between soft and hard economic data and discusses how to interpret their recent divergence.

Last week, President Trump announced new tariff measures, including reciprocal tariffs on about 60 countries with significant trade imbalances or barriers, and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and higher These changes mark a sharp shift from decades of declining tariff rates, with the average U.S. tariff projected to rise from under 3% to over 20%, the highest in nearly a century.

What’s Behind the Market Selloff? First, momentum stocks that led the 2024 rally are now experiencing a sharp reversal. Second, investor exposure to the stock market was high entering 2025. Third, optimism around the Trump administration’s pro-growth policies has given way to concern, with worries that spending cuts and the uncertainty created by tariffs will slow economic growth.

In recent years, the Federal Reserve carried out one of the fastest rate-hiking campaigns in history to bring inflation down from a multi-decade high. After holding rates high for over 12 months, the central bank started its current rate-cutting cycle in late 2024, lowering rates by a total of -1% between September and the end of December. Where do things stand now?

The S&P 500 currently trades at over 21 times its next 12-month earnings estimate, a level not seen outside of periods like the late-1990s tech boom and the recent post-COVID recovery, when interest rates were near zero. Why do high valuations matter? History shows that while valuations have a limited impact on short-term returns, they play a critical role in determining long-term performance.

The past two years have been remarkable for investors, with the S&P 500 posting back-to-back gains of over +20%. The chart below looks at 2024’s price movement and uses yellow shading to mark the days when it closed at an all-time high. Since late January 2024, the S&P 500 has set over 50 new highs this year.

The election is over, and global markets are analyzing the outcome and starting to adjust portfolios. Republicans are set to control the White House, Senate, and House. As a result, investors are looking to Trump’s first term as a roadmap for how this administration’s policies may impact markets.

The economy is in uncharted territory. The Leading Economic Index (LEI), which tracks ten data points that tend to change before the overall economy does. Economists monitor the LEI because it includes data that can provide insight into future economic activity, such as unemployment claims, building permits, and manufacturing hours worked. A rising LEI signals improving economic conditions, while a declining LEI suggests worsening conditions.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Americans are preparing to vote in what polls forecast to be a tight race. Like many investors, you may wonder how the election outcome could affect financial markets and whether you should change your investment strategy. While elected leaders can influence economic growth by enacting laws and regulations, data suggests that who occupies the White House has little to no impact on investment performance.