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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Trade War Whiplash, Bank Earnings, Fed Policy, and Weakening AI Sentiment

This week, markets declined as renewed US–China trade tensions and the government shutdown weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished lower, giving back gains from earlier in the month, while small caps ended the week flat. Defensive sectors outperformed as market volatility increased, while financials led to the downside due to rising concern over commercial-loan exposures. Longer-maturity bonds outperformed, and high-yield corporate bonds underperformed investment grade. Gold surged to a new high, while crude oil fell over -6% to early 2021 levels.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

More AI Deals, Government Shutdown Continues, and Gold Sets a Record High

This week, markets continued to grind higher, extending their early October rally as investor optimism held firm despite the ongoing government shutdown. The S&P 500 hit another record high but mostly traded sideways, led by the Utilities and Technology sectors, which continue to benefit from AI investment. In the credit market, bonds traded lower as Treasury yields increased with the government shutdown. Meanwhile, gold and bitcoin set record highs, and the VIX drifted up toward a 3-month high but remained range-bound, signaling expectations for market volatility to remain subdued.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Government Shutdown, Labor and Mfg. Data, Tariff Rhetoric, and AI Infrastructure Spending

This week, the markets ended higher, extending September’s momentum despite lingering macro uncertainties. The S&P 500 rose nearly +2% to another all-time high, led by health care, technology, and utilities gains, while energy and financials lagged. International equities outpaced U.S. markets as the dollar softened, with emerging markets ahead of developed. Treasuries rallied on weaker fixed-income labor data, with longer maturities outperforming as interest rates fell. Corporate bonds also trade higher, with investment-grade outperforming high yield. Commodities diverged as crude oil fell to its lowest since early May, while gold extended its record-setting rally.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

August Economic Recap and the Fed Cuts Rates

This week, markets posted modest gains with a slight risk-on tone. The S&P 500 edged higher, led by Technology, Growth, and High Beta, while defensives such as Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Low Volatility lagged. International returns were mixed as the US dollar traded sideways. The Treasury curve steepened after the Fed cut rates in fixed income, pushing the back end higher. Longer-duration bonds underperformed short- and intermediate-duration bonds, and high-yield outperformed investment-grade. Oil gained +2%, while gold finished unchanged.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Weak Labor Market Data, Mixed Inflation Data, and AI Earnings

This week, Markets traded higher with gains across equities and bonds. The S&P 500 advanced alongside the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ, with factor leadership favoring Momentum and High Beta over Low Volatility and Value. International equities outperformed the S&P with emerging leading developed as the USD weakened. Treasury yields declined across the curve, most notably on the long end, causing long-duration Treasuries to outperform. Within corporate credit, IG outperformed HY as credit spreads held steady. Oil traded lower, while gold hit a record high. The VIX was flat, and bond market volatility declined after the August jobs and inflation reports increased the probability of a rate cut next week.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Fed Policy, Nvidia Earnings, Business Investment, and Q2 GDP Revisions

This week, the markets rose broadly with small caps and cyclical sectors leading. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq returned ~+2% but underperformed the Russell 2000’s +4%, signaling a continued rotation into smaller companies. Growth outperformed Value, and High Beta led, while Low Volatility and Equal Weight lagged. International equities underperformed despite the U.S. dollar weakening. Treasury yields fell, boosting mid- and long-duration bonds. High-yield corporate outperformed investment grades as credit spreads tightened. Gold moved back toward record highs, oil edged higher, and the U.S. dollar weakened. Volatility declined, with the VIX and MOVE indices finishing lower.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Housing, and Corporate Bond Credit Spreads

This week was marked by risk-off sentiment as equities declined, led by weakness in mega-cap stocks and the Nasdaq, though small caps fell in line with the S&P 500 and equal-weight and defensive sectors outperformed. International equities held up better, Treasury yields rose with high-yield bonds outperforming investment grade, commodities were steady, the dollar strengthened modestly, and volatility increased across asset classes. Notably, Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech struck a dovish tone, highlighting labor market risks and signaling openness to rate cuts as soon as September, sparking a sharp rebound in equities and renewed optimism in rate-sensitive sectors.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Inflation Data Takes Center Stage

This week, the markets rallied on renewed risk-on sentiment. The S&P 500 reached a new record, but small caps led after a cool CPI print raised expectations for a September rate cut. International stocks also traded higher, with developed markets performing in line with the S&P 500 and emerging markets underperforming. Treasury yields rose across the yield curve, weighing on long-duration Treasury bonds. Corporate credit spreads edged lower, and high yield slightly outperformed investment grade. Oil and the US dollar changed slightly, while gold was traded lower.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Q2 GDP, July Jobs Report, and Magnificent 7 Earnings

This week, mega-cap stocks led with the Growth factor, and the Nasdaq index outperformed the S&P 500, while the Equal Weight S&P 500 underperformed. International equities outperformed U.S. equities, with developed and emerging markets outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly +2% as the U.S. dollar weakened. Bonds traded higher as Treasury yields rallied after a weak July jobs report, with the front end of the curve falling the most. Volatility expectations rose, with the VIX rising to mid-June levels before retreating.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Housing Activity, Trade Deals, Q2 Earnings, and Meme Stocks

This week, markets advanced with the S&P 500 rising 1%, outperforming the Russell 2000. Defensive sectors—including Utilities, Health Care, and Real Estate—led gains, while Technology remained flat. International equities surpassed U.S. counterparts, with developed markets outperforming emerging ones. Treasury yields declined, especially across intermediate and long durations, and credit spreads tightened, allowing high yield to match investment-grade returns. he VIX dropped to its lowest level in 2025, signaling rising investor confidence driven by improved market breadth, strong earnings, and trade policy progress.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Inflation, Manufacturing, Retail Sales, and Market Complacency

This week, the markets traded cautiously with the S&P 500 stuck in a narrow trading range since the start of July. The Nasdaq, tech sector, and growth factor outperformed, while value, low volatility, and equal weight traded lower. Small ended the week with a slight loss, underperforming the S&P 500. Overseas, emerging markets outperformed both developed markets and the S&P 500. Rising Treasury yields weighed on long-duration bonds in fixed income, with the 30-year yield climbing sharply. Gold was changed a little, oil traded higher, Bitcoin set a record high early in the week, and the US dollar strengthened.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Tax Cut Bill Passes, Jobs and PMI Reports, and Q2 Earnings Expectations

This week, there was an underlying rotation in the market. The Russell 2000 and S&P 500 equal-weight outperformed the S&P 500, while the momentum factor traded lower. High Beta continued to outperform, benefiting from its semiconductor OW, while Low Volatility traded lower, signaling a preference for risk assets. Investment Grade and High Yield bonds underperformed in the corporate market as credit spreads widened. Oil posted a modest loss, and the dollar snapped its losing streak to finish stronger. Implied volatility eased, with the VIX and MOVE indices signaling a calmer market.

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