Our Insights
Oil Prices, Interest Rates Rise and Next Week's Calendar
This week, markets traded lower as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East and oil prices surged +17%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each declined around -2%, with the Russell 2000 close behind at -1.5%. Bonds traded lower as interest rates rose across the yield curve, with longer-maturity bonds underperforming. The VIX climbed back toward 20 late in the week, and the U.S. dollar strengthened as interest rates rose and markets turned volatile.
Inflation, Bank Earnings, and Consumer Spending
This week, markets were mixed as leadership continued to rotate within the market. The S&P 500 returned -0.1% and the Nasdaq declined -2.5% as investors rotated out of Technology stocks. The value and equal-weight factors both outperformed, an indication that the average stock traded higher even as the cap-weighted indexes declined. The high beta and momentum factors led the market lower due to their overweighting of the Tech sector, which fell 4.3%. Bonds mostly finished the week flat, with longer-dated Treasury bonds modestly underperforming as oil prices surged nearly 10% amid renewed conflict in the Middle East.
Semiconductor Stock Volatility, Inflation Data, and Energy Prices
This week, markets traded lower, though there was relative strength beneath the major equity indexes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both ended the week lower as the largest tech stocks sold off. Bonds gained as Treasury yields fell despite a hot inflation report, with investors expecting inflation to ease after the recent decline in oil prices. Oil fell nearly -5% as traffic in the Strait increased, while the VIX, a measure of expected market volatility, drifted higher as the major indexes declined.
Fed Meeting, U.S.-Iran Deal, Consumer Spending, and SpaceX IPO
This week, markets traded higher with gains concentrated in the semiconductor industry and AI beneficiaries. Mega-cap tech's strength lifted the S&P 500 +1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite +3.1%. Bonds ended the week flat, with the long end the exception, which outperformed as falling oil prices eased inflation fears. Commodities fell sharply, with oil falling 13% as the U.S. and Iran agreed to a framework to end the conflict.
Inflation Remains Elevated, and Labor Market Improves
This week, markets fell for a second straight week, pausing a nearly two-month rally that began in late March. The market’s recent winners, particularly the tech sector and growth stocks, continued to lead the selloff. Treasury yields ended the week lower as oil prices fell on headlines of a diplomatic resolution, even though headline inflation came in higher than expected. Commodities moved lower as oil declined more than -6%, and bitcoin stabilized after falling to $60,000 last week.
Inflation Data, GDP Growth Revised Lower, and Stocks Set New Highs as Oil Prices Decline
This week, stocks extended their winning streak, setting fresh records almost daily. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow each closed at new all-time highs, and the rally showed signs of broadening, with small caps and the equal-weight index participating more than they had in recent weeks. p-weighted index and growth stocks are higher. Defensive sectors and energy lagged as the market rallied on diplomatic progress in the Middle East. Falling oil prices sent Treasury yields reversing lower after their recent climb, and the decline in interest rates offered relief to bonds.
Interest Rates Rise, Oil Prices Fall Below $100, and Nvidia Reports Strong Earnings
This week, the pace of the rally slowed this week as markets reacted to a combination of headlines. Stocks traded lower early in the week as Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs, raising concerns about increased borrowing costs and pressuring stock market valuations. However, sentiment improved after reports of potential progress in negotiations with Iran pushed oil prices back below $100 per barrel and stabilized interest rates.
Inflation Surprises to the Upside, Rates Rise, and Stocks Set New Highs
This week, markets traded higher for a seventh consecutive week, extending the rally from late March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued to set new all-time highs, but the rally remained narrow, with small-cap stocks and the equal-weight S&P 500 posting only modest gains. The week's defining story was inflation, with both consumer and producer prices rising at the fastest pace in years. Oil prices climbed as tensions in the Middle East re-escalated, and international stocks again underperformed U.S. stocks.
Middle East Update, Stocks Set New Highs, Tech Q1 Earnings, and Q1 GDP Growth
This week, markets traded higher for a sixth consecutive week, extending the rally that began in late March and pushing several major indexes to new highs. The top-performing sectors were technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services, all of which carry significant exposure to the largest companies in the market. The rally has been driven by a relatively narrow group of market leaders.
Middle East Update, Stocks Set New Highs, Fed Policy, and Look Ahead to Next Week
This week, markets moved higher for a fourth consecutive week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at fresh all-time highs for the second week in a row. The pace of the rally slowed, however, and the gains were uneven beneath the surface. Oil prices rose after two consecutive weeks of declines, and a measure of market volatility ticked up as investors responded to geopolitical developments during the week.
Stocks Set All-Time Highs While Growth Factor Outperforms
This week, markets absorbed a failed ceasefire deal and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports to close at a new all-time high. The SP 500 gained nearly +3%, setting a new high as it extended an 11- session V-shaped recovery. The Nasdaq set a new high, gaining nearly 5%, as growth and tech stocks continued to trade higher. Measures of stock market and interest rate volatility continued to decline as risk premiums faded, and oil prices finished the week lower despite surging higher early in the week.
Middle East Ceasefire Agreement, Oil Decline, Equity Rally, and Q1 Earnings Season Kickoff
This week, stocks traded higher for a second consecutive week as de-escalation triggered the strongest single-day rally in a year. Most of the rally took place on Wednesday, after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil plunged 11%, the VIX dropped below 20, and international stocks rose as energy-importing nations benefited from the reversal in oil prices. However, the ceasefire was already being tested late in the week, with the market closely monitoring this weekend’s talks.