Our Insights
Fed Policy, AI Sector Divergence, Q3 Earnings, and Delayed Economic Data
This week, the equity market staged a broad rebound, recovering a portion of this month’s losses. The surge followed last Friday’s Fed commentary, which reopened the door to a December rate cut. Major equity indices rallied sharply, with gains spread across sectors and factors. Small-cap stocks were the standout performers, signaling a rotation into interest-rate-sensitive stocks that stand to benefit most from a December rate cut. The VIX market volatility index fell to a 1-month low after its recent spike, reflecting renewed confidence in the Fed’s pivot. The shift in the policy outlook drove Treasury yields lower across the yield curve, with the short end seeing the steepest decline. Gold traded higher, while oil continued to trade lower.
AI Selloff, December Rate Cut, Delayed Jobs Report, and Nvidia Earnings
This week, markets were volatile amid AI valuation concerns and Fed policy uncertainty, which pressured equities. Stocks traded lower for four straight sessions, led by weakness in technology and AI-related companies. Bitcoin continued its slide from October's peak, and market volatility spiked. The market staged a late-week rebound sparked by stronger-than-expected labor market data and Nvidia's strong Q3 earnings, but the bounce was short-lived. This week’s volatility highlights the market’s increased sensitivity to Fed policy and AI headlines, driven by the outsized influence of AI stocks in major equity indices.
Delayed Inflation Data, Fed Rate Cut, AI Earnings, and US-China Trade Meeting
This week, markets were mixed as early strength gave way to caution following Fed commentary and tech earnings. Stocks initially rallied after last week’s better-than-expected inflation report, sending the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones to new highs. However, the strength faded after the Fed cut, with Chair Powell questioning a December cut. Mega-cap tech earnings also weighed on sentiment, as companies reported strong growth and forecasts for rising capital expenditures. Bonds traded lower, with longer-maturity bonds underperforming. Commodities were mixed: oil gave back recent gains, while gold stabilized after last week’s sell-off.
Regional Bank Concerns, Q3 Earnings, Government Shutdown, and China Tensions
This week, markets were volatile as credit concerns, trade tensions, and an unwind of speculative positions weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 rebounded early after last week’s regional bank sell-off but lost momentum after the administration floated new software export controls and US–China tensions flared. Bonds edged higher as Treasury yields fell amid economic uncertainty, the government shutdown, and expectations for a rate cut next week. Commodities were volatile: gold and silver spiked early before reversing lower, while oil rebounded late after hovering near a 4.5-year low. The VIX eased after last week’s spike but remained elevated, reflecting caution across markets.
Trade War Whiplash, Bank Earnings, Fed Policy, and Weakening AI Sentiment
This week, markets declined as renewed US–China trade tensions and the government shutdown weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished lower, giving back gains from earlier in the month, while small caps ended the week flat. Defensive sectors outperformed as market volatility increased, while financials led to the downside due to rising concern over commercial-loan exposures. Longer-maturity bonds outperformed, and high-yield corporate bonds underperformed investment grade. Gold surged to a new high, while crude oil fell over -6% to early 2021 levels.
More AI Deals, Government Shutdown Continues, and Gold Sets a Record High
This week, markets continued to grind higher, extending their early October rally as investor optimism held firm despite the ongoing government shutdown. The S&P 500 hit another record high but mostly traded sideways, led by the Utilities and Technology sectors, which continue to benefit from AI investment. In the credit market, bonds traded lower as Treasury yields increased with the government shutdown. Meanwhile, gold and bitcoin set record highs, and the VIX drifted up toward a 3-month high but remained range-bound, signaling expectations for market volatility to remain subdued.
Government Shutdown, Labor and Mfg. Data, Tariff Rhetoric, and AI Infrastructure Spending
This week, the markets ended higher, extending September’s momentum despite lingering macro uncertainties. The S&P 500 rose nearly +2% to another all-time high, led by health care, technology, and utilities gains, while energy and financials lagged. International equities outpaced U.S. markets as the dollar softened, with emerging markets ahead of developed. Treasuries rallied on weaker fixed-income labor data, with longer maturities outperforming as interest rates fell. Corporate bonds also trade higher, with investment-grade outperforming high yield. Commodities diverged as crude oil fell to its lowest since early May, while gold extended its record-setting rally.
August Economic Recap and the Fed Cuts Rates
This week, markets posted modest gains with a slight risk-on tone. The S&P 500 edged higher, led by Technology, Growth, and High Beta, while defensives such as Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Low Volatility lagged. International returns were mixed as the US dollar traded sideways. The Treasury curve steepened after the Fed cut rates in fixed income, pushing the back end higher. Longer-duration bonds underperformed short- and intermediate-duration bonds, and high-yield outperformed investment-grade. Oil gained +2%, while gold finished unchanged.
Weak Labor Market Data, Mixed Inflation Data, and AI Earnings
This week, Markets traded higher with gains across equities and bonds. The S&P 500 advanced alongside the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ, with factor leadership favoring Momentum and High Beta over Low Volatility and Value. International equities outperformed the S&P with emerging leading developed as the USD weakened. Treasury yields declined across the curve, most notably on the long end, causing long-duration Treasuries to outperform. Within corporate credit, IG outperformed HY as credit spreads held steady. Oil traded lower, while gold hit a record high. The VIX was flat, and bond market volatility declined after the August jobs and inflation reports increased the probability of a rate cut next week.
Fed Policy, Nvidia Earnings, Business Investment, and Q2 GDP Revisions
This week, the markets rose broadly with small caps and cyclical sectors leading. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq returned ~+2% but underperformed the Russell 2000’s +4%, signaling a continued rotation into smaller companies. Growth outperformed Value, and High Beta led, while Low Volatility and Equal Weight lagged. International equities underperformed despite the U.S. dollar weakening. Treasury yields fell, boosting mid- and long-duration bonds. High-yield corporate outperformed investment grades as credit spreads tightened. Gold moved back toward record highs, oil edged higher, and the U.S. dollar weakened. Volatility declined, with the VIX and MOVE indices finishing lower.
Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Housing, and Corporate Bond Credit Spreads
This week was marked by risk-off sentiment as equities declined, led by weakness in mega-cap stocks and the Nasdaq, though small caps fell in line with the S&P 500 and equal-weight and defensive sectors outperformed. International equities held up better, Treasury yields rose with high-yield bonds outperforming investment grade, commodities were steady, the dollar strengthened modestly, and volatility increased across asset classes. Notably, Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech struck a dovish tone, highlighting labor market risks and signaling openness to rate cuts as soon as September, sparking a sharp rebound in equities and renewed optimism in rate-sensitive sectors.
Inflation Data Takes Center Stage
This week, the markets rallied on renewed risk-on sentiment. The S&P 500 reached a new record, but small caps led after a cool CPI print raised expectations for a September rate cut. International stocks also traded higher, with developed markets performing in line with the S&P 500 and emerging markets underperforming. Treasury yields rose across the yield curve, weighing on long-duration Treasury bonds. Corporate credit spreads edged lower, and high yield slightly outperformed investment grade. Oil and the US dollar changed slightly, while gold was traded lower.