Our Insights
Inflation Data, GDP Growth Revised Lower, and Stocks Set New Highs as Oil Prices Decline
This week, stocks extended their winning streak, setting fresh records almost daily. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow each closed at new all-time highs, and the rally showed signs of broadening, with small caps and the equal-weight index participating more than they had in recent weeks. p-weighted index and growth stocks are higher. Defensive sectors and energy lagged as the market rallied on diplomatic progress in the Middle East. Falling oil prices sent Treasury yields reversing lower after their recent climb, and the decline in interest rates offered relief to bonds.
Interest Rates Rise, Oil Prices Fall Below $100, and Nvidia Reports Strong Earnings
This week, the pace of the rally slowed this week as markets reacted to a combination of headlines. Stocks traded lower early in the week as Treasury yields climbed to multi-decade highs, raising concerns about increased borrowing costs and pressuring stock market valuations. However, sentiment improved after reports of potential progress in negotiations with Iran pushed oil prices back below $100 per barrel and stabilized interest rates.
Inflation Surprises to the Upside, Rates Rise, and Stocks Set New Highs
This week, markets traded higher for a seventh consecutive week, extending the rally from late March. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued to set new all-time highs, but the rally remained narrow, with small-cap stocks and the equal-weight S&P 500 posting only modest gains. The week's defining story was inflation, with both consumer and producer prices rising at the fastest pace in years. Oil prices climbed as tensions in the Middle East re-escalated, and international stocks again underperformed U.S. stocks.
Middle East Update, Stocks Set New Highs, Tech Q1 Earnings, and Q1 GDP Growth
This week, markets traded higher for a sixth consecutive week, extending the rally that began in late March and pushing several major indexes to new highs. The top-performing sectors were technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services, all of which carry significant exposure to the largest companies in the market. The rally has been driven by a relatively narrow group of market leaders.
Middle East Update, Stocks Set New Highs, Fed Policy, and Look Ahead to Next Week
This week, markets moved higher for a fourth consecutive week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at fresh all-time highs for the second week in a row. The pace of the rally slowed, however, and the gains were uneven beneath the surface. Oil prices rose after two consecutive weeks of declines, and a measure of market volatility ticked up as investors responded to geopolitical developments during the week.
Stocks Set All-Time Highs While Growth Factor Outperforms
This week, markets absorbed a failed ceasefire deal and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports to close at a new all-time high. The SP 500 gained nearly +3%, setting a new high as it extended an 11- session V-shaped recovery. The Nasdaq set a new high, gaining nearly 5%, as growth and tech stocks continued to trade higher. Measures of stock market and interest rate volatility continued to decline as risk premiums faded, and oil prices finished the week lower despite surging higher early in the week.
Middle East Ceasefire Agreement, Oil Decline, Equity Rally, and Q1 Earnings Season Kickoff
This week, stocks traded higher for a second consecutive week as de-escalation triggered the strongest single-day rally in a year. Most of the rally took place on Wednesday, after the announcement of a two-week ceasefire contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil plunged 11%, the VIX dropped below 20, and international stocks rose as energy-importing nations benefited from the reversal in oil prices. However, the ceasefire was already being tested late in the week, with the market closely monitoring this weekend’s talks.
Middle East Ceasefire Headlines, Volatile Oil Prices, Stock Market Rotation, and Fed Rate Hikes
This week, market trading was influenced by ceasefire headlines this week. The S&P 500 rose early after the administration reported talks with Iran, then reversed to close down nearly -0.5% as Iran denied negotiations and the diplomatic window narrowed. Meanwhile, the market rotation from early 2026 resumed, with small caps, value stocks, and the equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming. Oil dropped nearly -10% on Monday's ceasefire headline before recovering to close the week down roughly - 5%.
Energy Infrastructure, Inflation Pressures, Fed Policy, Market Volatility, and AI Demand
This week mirrored last week: stocks traded higher early, then fell and finished lower in a late-week selloff. The major equities were flat to modestly lower as the Middle East conflict continued. Bonds traded higher as the rise in Treasury yields slowed, and longer-maturity bonds outperformed as yields stabilized. Commodities traded lower: oil ended lower but remained stuck near $100 per barrel, gold fell despite market volatility and inflation concerns, and copper dropped nearly -4%. The VIX Index fell below 25 but remains elevated due to unresolved geopolitical tensions
Geopolitical Update, Job Growth, Consumer Spending, Inflation Data, and Next Week's Fed Meeting
This week, markets finished lower as an early-week rally faded into a late-week selloff. Stocks initially rallied as the White House said the "war is very complete, pretty much," and oil prices plunged, but the strength reversed as geopolitical tensions escalated and oil rebounded. The S&P 500 fell -2%, with Energy the only sector in positive territory. Commodities were mixed: oil rebounded toward $100 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, while gold posted a modest loss despite the market volatility. The VIX Index fell below 30 as oil stabilized, but remains elevated amid unresolved tensions.
Q4 GDP Growth, Tariff Uncertainty, Fed Rate Cuts, and AI Developments
This week, markets rebounded from an early-week sell-off tied to tariff uncertainty but finished the week little changed. The performance gap was narrow, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, equal-weight S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Dow all flat to slightly lower. International stocks continued to outperform U.S. stocks, led by emerging markets. Gold gained +3%, extending its strong 12-month performance, while oil pulled back after last week's geopolitical spike. The VIX briefly rose above 21 on Monday before falling back to 19.
AI Selloff Pauses, Economic Data Surprise to the Upside, Fed Meeting Minutes, and Rising Oil Prices
This week, markets stabilized as the AI-driven stress that dominated the prior two weeks began to ease. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains, with growth stocks outperforming value for the first time in five weeks. Volatility cooled, with the VIX briefly falling below 20, and high-yield credit spreads tightened, signaling improved risk appetite. Treasury yields ticked higher after the FOMC minutes revealed some officials discussed the possibility of rate hikes, pausing a multi-week rally that had driven Treasury yields. International stocks traded sideways as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Oil surged midweek amid escalating geopolitical tensions, gold traded lower amid a volatile week, and bitcoin extended its multi-month decline.