Our Insights
Q4 GDP Growth, Tariff Uncertainty, Fed Rate Cuts, and AI Developments
This week, markets rebounded from an early-week sell-off tied to tariff uncertainty but finished the week little changed. The performance gap was narrow, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, equal-weight S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Dow all flat to slightly lower. International stocks continued to outperform U.S. stocks, led by emerging markets. Gold gained +3%, extending its strong 12-month performance, while oil pulled back after last week's geopolitical spike. The VIX briefly rose above 21 on Monday before falling back to 19.
AI Selloff Pauses, Economic Data Surprise to the Upside, Fed Meeting Minutes, and Rising Oil Prices
This week, markets stabilized as the AI-driven stress that dominated the prior two weeks began to ease. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains, with growth stocks outperforming value for the first time in five weeks. Volatility cooled, with the VIX briefly falling below 20, and high-yield credit spreads tightened, signaling improved risk appetite. Treasury yields ticked higher after the FOMC minutes revealed some officials discussed the possibility of rate hikes, pausing a multi-week rally that had driven Treasury yields. International stocks traded sideways as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Oil surged midweek amid escalating geopolitical tensions, gold traded lower amid a volatile week, and bitcoin extended its multi-month decline.
Manufacturing Expansion, Mixed Labor Data, AI Debt Issuance, and AI Related Volatility
This week, stocks traded sideways before a late-week sell-off. The S&P 500 gained +0.5%, but it continued to lag the Russell 2000 and Equal Weight S&P 500. It is now underperforming both indices by over -5% YTD, while the Nasdaq and Large Cap Growth are down over -2% YTD as investors rotate and market leadership broadens. International stocks extended their gains, with developed and emerging markets rising by more than 4% as the U.S. dollar weakened. Gold and oil were modestly lower, and the VIX rose above 20 amid AI-related volatility.
Fed Holds Rates Steady, AI Earnings Show Strong Demand, and Consumer Sentiment Remains Weak
This week, markets were mixed as the rotation away from mega-cap stocks paused. The S&P 500 traded higher early in the week, briefly crossing the 7,000 level for the first time before a late-week pullback left it flat. Energy was the top-performing sector as oil rose to a 5-month high, while defensive sectors underperformed, led by Health Care. In the bond market, Treasury bonds posted modest gains as interest rates drifted lower, while corporate bonds traded lower amid widening credit spreads. A weaker US dollar boosted international stocks and commodity prices, with oil, gold, copper, and silver prices all surging.
Tariff Headlines Create Volatility and Next Week's Fed Meeting
This week, markets were choppy as policy headlines drove shifts in risk sentiment. Tariff-related developments sparked early-week volatility, though conditions stabilized as concerns eased. Major equity indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week little changed, but leadership continued to rotate beneath the surface. Small-cap, value, and equal-weight indexes outperformed, while technology stocks and the growth factor weighed on market-cap-weighted benchmarks. In fixed income, Treasury yields rose across the curve, driving bond prices lower. Corporate credit spreads remained extremely tight by historical standards, and high yield continued to outperform investment grade. Commodities were a strength, with gold rallying to new highs amid policy uncertainty.
Soft Jobs Growth, Easing Inflation, Solid Consumer Spending, and Uncertain Fed Policy
This week, the markets were mixed, with last week’s rotation carrying over. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains, while small-cap, value, and equal-weight benchmarks outperformed, highlighting the ongoing shift in market leadership. Treasury yields fluctuated throughout the week, responding to a combination of falling unemployment, easing inflation, and solid consumer spending. Shorter-maturity Treasury yields rose as expectations for a near-term rate cut diminished, while longer-maturity yields declined. Commodities rallied, led by a sharp rise in oil and gains in gold and copper, and bitcoin rose to the highest level since mid-November.
Goods and Services Activity Diverge, Labor Conditions Soften, and Market Leadership Broadens
This week, the markets started 2026 on a positive note, with major equity indices extending their 2025 gains as leadership shifted to smaller companies and cyclical sectors. Economic data reinforced the picture of a two-speed economy, with divergent activity across goods and services alongside softer labor conditions. The dominant market narrative centers on a soft landing, where the economy slows but avoids a recession, and the growth potential of the AI industry. Looking ahead, the main questions are whether stock market leadership will continue to broaden and how much further the Fed will cut interest rates.
Delayed Jobs and Inflation Data, Fed Policy, and AI Stock Selloff
This week, markets ended the week in a more measured and selective mood as investors digested signs of a cooling economy. Equity markets were choppy, with weakness concentrated in technology and AIrelated stocks rather than broad weakness. The S&P 500 fell nearly 2%, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 declined by nearly 3%. Bonds ended the week modestly higher as Treasury yields drifted lower, though longer-maturity bonds underperformed. The VIX market volatility index rose as technology stocks weighed on the broad index, and oil prices declined nearly -3%.
Soft Labor Data, Slow Disinflation, Fed Rate Cut, and New Market Highs
This week, markets leaned risk-on as the Fed delivered its third consecutive rate cut and investors doubled down on the soft-landing narrative. Stocks wavered early but rallied after Wednesday’s Fed decision, with the S&P 500 and Dow moving back toward all-time highs. The Nasdaq and large-cap growth stocks finished the week mostly unchanged, and defensive sectors lagged. In the credit market, bonds ended the week with modest losses as Treasury yields edged higher amid expectations that the Fed will pause its rate-cutting cycle. Oil held near a four-year low, reinforcing the disinflationary tailwind, while gold hovered near record levels and Bitcoin remained volatile.
Fed Policy, AI Sector Divergence, Q3 Earnings, and Delayed Economic Data
This week, the equity market staged a broad rebound, recovering a portion of this month’s losses. The surge followed last Friday’s Fed commentary, which reopened the door to a December rate cut. Major equity indices rallied sharply, with gains spread across sectors and factors. Small-cap stocks were the standout performers, signaling a rotation into interest-rate-sensitive stocks that stand to benefit most from a December rate cut. The VIX market volatility index fell to a 1-month low after its recent spike, reflecting renewed confidence in the Fed’s pivot. The shift in the policy outlook drove Treasury yields lower across the yield curve, with the short end seeing the steepest decline. Gold traded higher, while oil continued to trade lower.
AI Selloff, December Rate Cut, Delayed Jobs Report, and Nvidia Earnings
This week, markets were volatile amid AI valuation concerns and Fed policy uncertainty, which pressured equities. Stocks traded lower for four straight sessions, led by weakness in technology and AI-related companies. Bitcoin continued its slide from October's peak, and market volatility spiked. The market staged a late-week rebound sparked by stronger-than-expected labor market data and Nvidia's strong Q3 earnings, but the bounce was short-lived. This week’s volatility highlights the market’s increased sensitivity to Fed policy and AI headlines, driven by the outsized influence of AI stocks in major equity indices.
Delayed Inflation Data, Fed Rate Cut, AI Earnings, and US-China Trade Meeting
This week, markets were mixed as early strength gave way to caution following Fed commentary and tech earnings. Stocks initially rallied after last week’s better-than-expected inflation report, sending the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones to new highs. However, the strength faded after the Fed cut, with Chair Powell questioning a December cut. Mega-cap tech earnings also weighed on sentiment, as companies reported strong growth and forecasts for rising capital expenditures. Bonds traded lower, with longer-maturity bonds underperforming. Commodities were mixed: oil gave back recent gains, while gold stabilized after last week’s sell-off.