Our Insights

Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Tariff Headlines Create Volatility and Next Week's Fed Meeting

This week, markets were choppy as policy headlines drove shifts in risk sentiment. Tariff-related developments sparked early-week volatility, though conditions stabilized as concerns eased. Major equity indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week little changed, but leadership continued to rotate beneath the surface. Small-cap, value, and equal-weight indexes outperformed, while technology stocks and the growth factor weighed on market-cap-weighted benchmarks. In fixed income, Treasury yields rose across the curve, driving bond prices lower. Corporate credit spreads remained extremely tight by historical standards, and high yield continued to outperform investment grade. Commodities were a strength, with gold rallying to new highs amid policy uncertainty.

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Soft Jobs Growth, Easing Inflation, Solid Consumer Spending, and Uncertain Fed Policy

This week, the markets were mixed, with last week’s rotation carrying over. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains, while small-cap, value, and equal-weight benchmarks outperformed, highlighting the ongoing shift in market leadership. Treasury yields fluctuated throughout the week, responding to a combination of falling unemployment, easing inflation, and solid consumer spending. Shorter-maturity Treasury yields rose as expectations for a near-term rate cut diminished, while longer-maturity yields declined. Commodities rallied, led by a sharp rise in oil and gains in gold and copper, and bitcoin rose to the highest level since mid-November.

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Goods and Services Activity Diverge, Labor Conditions Soften, and Market Leadership Broadens

This week, the markets started 2026 on a positive note, with major equity indices extending their 2025 gains as leadership shifted to smaller companies and cyclical sectors. Economic data reinforced the picture of a two-speed economy, with divergent activity across goods and services alongside softer labor conditions. The dominant market narrative centers on a soft landing, where the economy slows but avoids a recession, and the growth potential of the AI industry. Looking ahead, the main questions are whether stock market leadership will continue to broaden and how much further the Fed will cut interest rates.

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Delayed Jobs and Inflation Data, Fed Policy, and AI Stock Selloff

This week, markets ended the week in a more measured and selective mood as investors digested signs of a cooling economy. Equity markets were choppy, with weakness concentrated in technology and AIrelated stocks rather than broad weakness. The S&P 500 fell nearly 2%, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 declined by nearly 3%. Bonds ended the week modestly higher as Treasury yields drifted lower, though longer-maturity bonds underperformed. The VIX market volatility index rose as technology stocks weighed on the broad index, and oil prices declined nearly -3%.

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Soft Labor Data, Slow Disinflation, Fed Rate Cut, and New Market Highs

This week, markets leaned risk-on as the Fed delivered its third consecutive rate cut and investors doubled down on the soft-landing narrative. Stocks wavered early but rallied after Wednesday’s Fed decision, with the S&P 500 and Dow moving back toward all-time highs.  The Nasdaq and large-cap growth stocks finished the week mostly unchanged, and defensive sectors lagged. In the credit market, bonds ended the week with modest losses as Treasury yields edged higher amid expectations that the Fed will pause its rate-cutting cycle. Oil held near a four-year low, reinforcing the disinflationary tailwind, while gold hovered near record levels and Bitcoin remained volatile.

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Fed Policy, AI Sector Divergence, Q3 Earnings, and Delayed Economic Data

This week, the equity market staged a broad rebound, recovering a portion of this month’s losses. The surge followed last Friday’s Fed commentary, which reopened the door to a December rate cut. Major equity indices rallied sharply, with gains spread across sectors and factors. Small-cap stocks were the standout performers, signaling a rotation into interest-rate-sensitive stocks that stand to benefit most from a December rate cut. The VIX market volatility index fell to a 1-month low after its recent spike, reflecting renewed confidence in the Fed’s pivot. The shift in the policy outlook drove Treasury yields lower across the yield curve, with the short end seeing the steepest decline. Gold traded higher, while oil continued to trade lower.

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

AI Selloff, December Rate Cut, Delayed Jobs Report, and Nvidia Earnings

This week, markets were volatile amid AI valuation concerns and Fed policy uncertainty, which pressured equities. Stocks traded lower for four straight sessions, led by weakness in technology and AI-related companies. Bitcoin continued its slide from October's peak, and market volatility spiked. The market staged a late-week rebound sparked by stronger-than-expected labor market data and Nvidia's strong Q3 earnings, but the bounce was short-lived. This week’s volatility highlights the market’s increased sensitivity to Fed policy and AI headlines, driven by the outsized influence of AI stocks in major equity indices.

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Delayed Inflation Data, Fed Rate Cut, AI Earnings, and US-China Trade Meeting

This week, markets were mixed as early strength gave way to caution following Fed commentary and tech earnings. Stocks initially rallied after last week’s better-than-expected inflation report, sending the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones to new highs. However, the strength faded after the Fed cut, with Chair Powell questioning a December cut. Mega-cap tech earnings also weighed on sentiment, as companies reported strong growth and forecasts for rising capital expenditures. Bonds traded lower, with longer-maturity bonds underperforming. Commodities were mixed: oil gave back recent gains, while gold stabilized after last week’s sell-off. 

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Regional Bank Concerns, Q3 Earnings, Government Shutdown, and China Tensions

This week, markets were volatile as credit concerns, trade tensions, and an unwind of speculative positions weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 rebounded early after last week’s regional bank sell-off but lost momentum after the administration floated new software export controls and US–China tensions flared. Bonds edged higher as Treasury yields fell amid economic uncertainty, the government shutdown, and expectations for a rate cut next week. Commodities were volatile: gold and silver spiked early before reversing lower, while oil rebounded late after hovering near a 4.5-year low. The VIX eased after last week’s spike but remained elevated, reflecting caution across markets.

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Trade War Whiplash, Bank Earnings, Fed Policy, and Weakening AI Sentiment

This week, markets declined as renewed US–China trade tensions and the government shutdown weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ finished lower, giving back gains from earlier in the month, while small caps ended the week flat. Defensive sectors outperformed as market volatility increased, while financials led to the downside due to rising concern over commercial-loan exposures. Longer-maturity bonds outperformed, and high-yield corporate bonds underperformed investment grade. Gold surged to a new high, while crude oil fell over -6% to early 2021 levels.

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

More AI Deals, Government Shutdown Continues, and Gold Sets a Record High

This week, markets continued to grind higher, extending their early October rally as investor optimism held firm despite the ongoing government shutdown. The S&P 500 hit another record high but mostly traded sideways, led by the Utilities and Technology sectors, which continue to benefit from AI investment. In the credit market, bonds traded lower as Treasury yields increased with the government shutdown. Meanwhile, gold and bitcoin set record highs, and the VIX drifted up toward a 3-month high but remained range-bound, signaling expectations for market volatility to remain subdued.

Read More
Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Government Shutdown, Labor and Mfg. Data, Tariff Rhetoric, and AI Infrastructure Spending

This week, the markets ended higher, extending September’s momentum despite lingering macro uncertainties. The S&P 500 rose nearly +2% to another all-time high, led by health care, technology, and utilities gains, while energy and financials lagged. International equities outpaced U.S. markets as the dollar softened, with emerging markets ahead of developed. Treasuries rallied on weaker fixed-income labor data, with longer maturities outperforming as interest rates fell. Corporate bonds also trade higher, with investment-grade outperforming high yield. Commodities diverged as crude oil fell to its lowest since early May, while gold extended its record-setting rally.

Read More