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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Housing, and Corporate Bond Credit Spreads

This week was marked by risk-off sentiment as equities declined, led by weakness in mega-cap stocks and the Nasdaq, though small caps fell in line with the S&P 500 and equal-weight and defensive sectors outperformed. International equities held up better, Treasury yields rose with high-yield bonds outperforming investment grade, commodities were steady, the dollar strengthened modestly, and volatility increased across asset classes. Notably, Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech struck a dovish tone, highlighting labor market risks and signaling openness to rate cuts as soon as September, sparking a sharp rebound in equities and renewed optimism in rate-sensitive sectors.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Inflation Data Takes Center Stage

This week, the markets rallied on renewed risk-on sentiment. The S&P 500 reached a new record, but small caps led after a cool CPI print raised expectations for a September rate cut. International stocks also traded higher, with developed markets performing in line with the S&P 500 and emerging markets underperforming. Treasury yields rose across the yield curve, weighing on long-duration Treasury bonds. Corporate credit spreads edged lower, and high yield slightly outperformed investment grade. Oil and the US dollar changed slightly, while gold was traded lower.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Q2 GDP, July Jobs Report, and Magnificent 7 Earnings

This week, mega-cap stocks led with the Growth factor, and the Nasdaq index outperformed the S&P 500, while the Equal Weight S&P 500 underperformed. International equities outperformed U.S. equities, with developed and emerging markets outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly +2% as the U.S. dollar weakened. Bonds traded higher as Treasury yields rallied after a weak July jobs report, with the front end of the curve falling the most. Volatility expectations rose, with the VIX rising to mid-June levels before retreating.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Housing Activity, Trade Deals, Q2 Earnings, and Meme Stocks

This week, markets advanced with the S&P 500 rising 1%, outperforming the Russell 2000. Defensive sectors—including Utilities, Health Care, and Real Estate—led gains, while Technology remained flat. International equities surpassed U.S. counterparts, with developed markets outperforming emerging ones. Treasury yields declined, especially across intermediate and long durations, and credit spreads tightened, allowing high yield to match investment-grade returns. he VIX dropped to its lowest level in 2025, signaling rising investor confidence driven by improved market breadth, strong earnings, and trade policy progress.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Inflation, Manufacturing, Retail Sales, and Market Complacency

This week, the markets traded cautiously with the S&P 500 stuck in a narrow trading range since the start of July. The Nasdaq, tech sector, and growth factor outperformed, while value, low volatility, and equal weight traded lower. Small ended the week with a slight loss, underperforming the S&P 500. Overseas, emerging markets outperformed both developed markets and the S&P 500. Rising Treasury yields weighed on long-duration bonds in fixed income, with the 30-year yield climbing sharply. Gold was changed a little, oil traded higher, Bitcoin set a record high early in the week, and the US dollar strengthened.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Tax Cut Bill Passes, Jobs and PMI Reports, and Q2 Earnings Expectations

This week, there was an underlying rotation in the market. The Russell 2000 and S&P 500 equal-weight outperformed the S&P 500, while the momentum factor traded lower. High Beta continued to outperform, benefiting from its semiconductor OW, while Low Volatility traded lower, signaling a preference for risk assets. Investment Grade and High Yield bonds underperformed in the corporate market as credit spreads widened. Oil posted a modest loss, and the dollar snapped its losing streak to finish stronger. Implied volatility eased, with the VIX and MOVE indices signaling a calmer market.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady and Economic Data Softening

This week, stocks ended slightly lower as markets contended with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 declined by 1.1%, with the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ posting similar losses of 1.2% and 0.7%, respectively. Volatility also increased across both equity and bond markets. Overall, the market remains range-bound and directionless as investors await clearer signals regarding trade policy, economic growth, and the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

US and China Meet, Solid Job Growth, Subdued Inflation, and Next Week’s Fed Meeting

This week, stocks rose, with the S&P 500 approaching its all-time high from February 19th. The Russell 2000 increased by 2%, and high-beta stocks surged nearly 3% due to semiconductor strength. Energy was the best-performing sector, boosted by a 7% rise in oil, while technology, consumer discretionary, and health care also excelled. In the credit market, long-duration Treasury and corporate bonds gained as yields fell following favorable inflation news. Volatility decreased in both markets, and the US dollar hit a three-year low, with gold seeing a modest increase.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

US Debt Downgrade, Congress Debates Tax Cut Bill, and Fed Speakers Urge Patience

Stocks edged lower this week, with the S&P 500 declining less than -1%. Smaller companies underperformed, while the Nasdaq Index remained a relative outperformer. The bond market saw the most notable development, as the US debt downgrade and deficit-funded tax cut bill pushed Treasury yields higher. Volatility picked up modestly, with both equity (VIX) and bond (MOVE) gauges rising after recent declines. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened amid growing fiscal concerns

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Risk-On, China Trade Deal, Soft vs Hard Economic Data

Our US Risk Demand Indicator turned positive this week after turning negative and signaling risk off in March. The official reading is +0.01, slightly positive but enough to signal risk-on. As discussed below, the market has rebounded sharply off the April 8th lows as tensions eased. Given the fluid backdrop, the market could fluctuate between risk-on and risk-off in the coming months

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Trade Deficit Weighs on GDP, Labor Market Remains Solid, and Fed Holds Rates Steady

This week, stocks sold off early in the week but rebounded to finish higher after the administration announced a UK trade deal. The Russell 2000 led the gains and outperformed the S&P 500, with outperformance from the Equal Weight, Value, and High Beta factors as well. Volatility eased across markets, with both the VIX and MOVE indices falling as tensions continue to de-escalate. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened, and oil prices rose despite OPEC signaling plans to increase output.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Headline Volatility, Soft and Hard Economic Data Diverge, and Ingredients for a Market Bottom

This week, stocks ended the week higher after an early-week selloff. The S&P 500 gained +3.9% as it climbed back toward “Liberation Day” levels. The tone was broadly risk-on: the Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 with a +4.2% gain, High Beta outperformed Low Volatility, and cyclical sectors led defensives. In the fixed-income market, bonds were flat as Treasury yields stabilized. Notably, corporate high-yield outperformed as credit spreads re-tightened, another sign of improving risk sentiment.

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