Our Insights
Key Benefits of Year-End Tax Loss Harvesting
As we approach the end of the year, investors with significant capital gains or losses may consider a tax-loss harvesting strategy. Tax-loss harvesting offers tax advantages, but there are special considerations.
Implications of the US Treasury’s Financing Announcement
Last week, the U.S. Treasury announced its updated borrowing estimates and projected issuance for the next two quarters as the Fed holds interest rates steady. Meantime, at the halfway point of the third quarter earnings season, nearly 80% of the reporting S&P 500 companies had posted better-than-expected profits.
Why the Stock Market May Have a Year-End Rally
Navigating this cycle is particularly challenging due to its complexities. While macro historically matters over the long term, markets can diverge from macro in the near term. Seasonality is historically a tailwind when the S&P 500 is up through October, which historically has shown a 90% win rate.
Stocks and Bonds Trade Lower as Interest Rates Continue to Rise
The S&P 500 gained more than 20% through the end of July but has since declined 8.3% over the past three months, bringing its year-to-date gain to 10.6%. A significant factor behind the recent equity market sell-off has been the sharp rise in interest rates.
Thoughts on Portfolio Diversification
If you have ever thought of investing, one of the terms you’ve probably heard is “diversification”. This article will explain what diversification is, the benefits of creating a diversified portfolio, and coincidentally, its drawbacks.
Equities Start to Price in Higher Interest Rates
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Durable Goods, and Home Sales underscore the economy's resilience despite the S&P 500 closing at 4,117, below more than 10% its recent peak in July.
Solid Economic Data Lifts Interest Rates
Equities traded lower this week, with US large and small caps stocks producing similar returns while the Nasdaq underperformed. We expect quantitative tightening to continue for the foreseeable future.
Market Overlooks Geopolitical Risks as it Debates Fed Policy
Equity markets displayed a willingness to overlook geopolitical tensions this week, with investors focusing on monetary policy back home. A central theme was the debate over the recent surge in Treasury yields and how the subsequent tightening of financial conditions will impact the Fed's policy stance.
3Q 2023 Recap and 4Q 2023 Outlook
Stocks and bonds were both impacted by a chain of events during the third quarter. It started with rising oil prices, which caused inflation to re-accelerate in August. Here we recap the third quarter, discuss the rise in oil prices and interest rates, and look ahead to the fourth quarter of 2023.
The Fed Buys into the Soft Landing Narrative
Investor sentiment has remained upbeat throughout 2023. Financial markets have rebounded from their 2022 sell-off, with the S&P 500 gaining more than 15% and credit spreads tightening. The Fed's tightening cycle is nearing an end, and its impact has been limited thus far compared to prior tightening cycles.
Why Interest Rates Could Remain High Heading Into 2024
The August market action is a continuation of the primary trend we have seen this year. The market remains fixated on the Fed’s next move, including how high the Fed will raise interest rates and whether it will cut interest rates in 2024.
Will Rising Oil Prices Impact Fed's Rate Hike Plan?
In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6%, following a 0.2% rise in July (Figure 1 ). It was the biggest monthly increase in 14 months, with the recent surge in gasoline prices accounting for more than half of the rise. Excluding food and energy, the index rose 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in July.