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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Midterm Elections, Semiconductor Selloff, Oil Prices, and Manufacturing/Labor Data

Major indexes fell as a selloff in AI-related stocks drove the S&P 500 down 4.7% and the Nasdaq down 9.5%. Value and defensive sectors outperformed, while Treasuries rallied. Oil dropped 11.1% on hopes of Middle East diplomacy, gold rebounded above $4,000, and the VIX climbed above 25.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Q3 GDP Growth, September Inflation, the Fed's Rate Decision, & AI Earnings

Stocks were mixed as investors weighed a Fed decision, strong economic data, and earnings from the largest tech companies. The S&P 500 drifted higher, and the Nasdaq gained nearly +1.5%, while the Dow Jones fell about -1%. The small size factor outperformed, with the Russell 2000 rising nearly +2.5%. Overall, 9 of 11 sectors traded higher. Tech led all sectors with a +3.1% gain, while Communication Services fell over -5% after Alphabet's earnings disappointed. High Beta and Momentum stocks outperformed Low Volatility, reversing part of last week's shift toward defensive stocks. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year yield remaining near 5%. Oil swung after attacks on Saudi energy facilities and ended the week nearly +3% higher, while the U.S. dollar firmed and the VIX, a measure of expected volatility, fell back below 20.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Housing Data, Manufacturing Activity, and Equity Market Rotation

This week, performance beneath the major indexes was stronger. The S&P 500 fell -1.1%, and the Nasdaq declined -3.4%, while the Russell 2000 small-cap index gained +0.3%. The Equal-Weight S&P 500 rose +1.2%, highlighting broad participation despite tech weakness, and Value (+0.9%) outperformed Growth (-3.6%). Eight of eleven sectors traded higher, led by Consumer Staples (+3.5%), Utilities (+2.7%), and Financials (+2.4%). Technology (-3.9%) and Communication Services (-4.8%) lagged. Bonds rallied as Treasury yields fell, with long-maturity Treasuries up +2.3% versus +0.3% for short-maturity bonds. Investment-grade corporate bonds rose +0.8%, while high-yield bonds were flat. Oil rose +2.8%, the U.S. dollar modestly weakened, and the VIX ended flat after a late-week spike.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

September Inflation and Retail Sales Data, AI Financing, and Bank Earnings

This week, markets were mixed as technology and growth stocks declined, while value and defensive sectors traded higher. The S&P 500 fell -0.3%, the Nasdaq declined -2.6%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index returned -1.0%. However, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 gained +1.3%, while Value (+1.6%) outperformed Growth (-2.3%), signaling broader participation and a rotation beneath the major indexes. Bonds rallied as Treasury yields fell, with longer-maturity Treasuries up 2.7%. Investment-grade corporate bonds (+1.0%) outperformed high-yield bonds, which were flat as credit spreads widened. Oil rose +6.8%, while the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin were little changed.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

September Jobs Report, Services Activity, Rising Interest Rates, & Look Ahead to Next Week

This week's markets traded higher, although performance beneath the major indexes was once again mixed. The S&P 500 gained 1.3%, the Nasdaq rose 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 0.5%. Despite the divergence, market breadth improved, with leadership shifting toward more defensive sectors and value stocks. The Equal-Weight S&P 500 gained +1.4%, and Value (+1.5%) outperformed Growth (+1.1%), despite continued weakness in small caps. Energy (+4.1%) led all sectors despite falling oil prices, followed by Consumer Staples (+3.8%) and Utilities (+3.5%). At the other end, Technology and Industrials were both flat. Bonds posted modest gains as Treasury yields finished the week lower after rising early in the week. The U.S. dollar was flat, oil prices declined -2.2%, and VIX ended the week near 15.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Q2 GDP Growth, Consumer Spending, AI Capex, & Rising Treasury Yields

This week markets were mixed this week as rising long-term Treasury yields weighed on bonds and the broader equity market. The S&P 500 fell -0.3%, the Nasdaq gained +0.2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index declined -0.9%. Growth (+0.2%) outperformed Value (-1.0%), while the equal weight S&P 500 fell -0.6%. Technology led all sectors with a +1.7% gain, while nine of the remaining ten sectors declined. Bonds produced mixed results as interest rates diverged across maturities. Higher long-term Treasury yields weighed on longer-maturity bonds, with 20+ year Treasuries falling -1.8%, while shorter-maturity Treasuries gained +0.3%. Corporate bonds also declined as yields rose and credit spreads widened. The U.S. dollar strengthened +0.7%, oil fell -1.6%, and bond market volatility continued to increase.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Treasury Yields Climb, Survey Data Strengthens, Meta’s Muse Emerges, and Consumer Sentiment Slips

Technology stocks lifted major indexes as Treasury yields climbed to multidecade highs. Stronger business surveys, Meta’s Muse launch, and weakening consumer sentiment reveal a market balancing AI optimism with persistent inflation and rising borrowing costs.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Fed Meeting, August Inflation, and Rising Interest Rates

This week, markets traded lower as rising oil prices and long-term interest rates weighed on risk assets. The S&P 500 fell -2.0%, the Nasdaq declined -1.2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index returned -2.6%. Growth (-1.7%) outperformed Value (-2.4%), while the Equal-Weight S&P 500 fell -3.1%, signaling broad weakness beneath the major indexes. Corporate bonds also declined but outperformed Treasuries. Oil surged +12.5%, volatility increased, the U.S. dollar was little changed, and Bitcoin fell nearly -6% after a +20% rally.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Job Growth, Rising Oil Prices and Interest Rates, and Next Week's Fed Meeting

This week, the markets traded lower this week as rising oil prices and long-term interest rates weighed on risk assets. The S&P 500 fell -2.0%, the Nasdaq declined -1.2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index returned -2.6%. Growth (-1.7%) outperformed Value (-2.4%), while the Equal-Weight S&P 500 fell -3.1%, signaling broad weakness beneath the major indexes. Corporate bonds also declined but outperformed Treasuries. Oil surged +12.5%, volatility increased, the U.S. dollar was little changed, and Bitcoin fell nearly -6% after a +20% rally.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Oil & Yields Decline, New Home Sales, and Nvidia Earnings

This week, the markets traded higher as oil and long-term Treasury yields pulled back after rising last week. The S&P 500 gained +1.2%, the Nasdaq rose +1.2%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index returned +0.8%. Bonds rebounded as Treasury yields declined, with long-maturity Treasuries gaining +0.9% while shorter-maturity bonds were flat. Corporate bonds rose but trailed Treasuries, with investment-grade outperforming high-yield. Volatility eased in the equity and bond markets, the U.S. dollar strengthened modestly, and Bitcoin rose nearly +10%.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Consumers Soften, Interest Rates Rise, and Stocks Trade Lower

This week, markets traded lower this week as interest rates continued to rise. The S&P 500 fell -1.9%, the Nasdaq declined -3.1%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index returned -2.0%. Bonds traded lower as Treasury yields rose, with longer-maturity Treasuries down roughly -0.3%. Corporate bonds underperformed Treasuries as corporate credit spreads widened. The U.S. dollar weakened -1.1%, the VIX drifted higher, and Bitcoin gained more than +14%.

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Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA® Market Update Jonathan M. Elliott, CPWA®, CRPC®, CDFA®, ChSNC®, CPFA™, RMA®

Job Growth, Inflation, Fed Policy, Demand for AI Computer Power, and Small Business Sentiment

This week, the markets traded higher. The S&P 500 gained +1.2%, the Nasdaq 100 rose +2.4%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index returned +1.8%, with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both setting new all-time highs. The equal-weight S&P 500 also gained +1.9%, signaling broad market participation. Bonds traded higher as markets reduced expectations for another Fed rate hike, with shorter-maturity bonds outperforming longer-maturity bonds. Gold prices continued to drift higher, while the VIX fell below 15 and sits near a year-to-date low.

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